11.4-11.8磷矿石、热法磷酸及湿法净化磷酸行情周报
磷矿石：
本周磷矿石价格持稳。
供应方面：云南开采正常；湖北地区安全国检，3-6号停放炸材，短停影响范围有限；四川地区受环保检查影响收发货及选矿放缓，部分企业开采受影响，供应相对减少；据悉贵州地区近日因环保检查，扬尘对破碎矿企稍有影响，但整体稳定，供应相对稳定；北方部分企业环保督查尚未彻底结束，生产仍未恢复，供应能力短期提升空间有限。
28%品位原矿：贵州地区参考价格为940-960元/吨；云南地区参考价格890-910元/吨；湖北地区参考价格1000-1020元/吨；
30%品位原矿：贵州地区参考价格为1030-1050元/吨；湖北地区参考价格1030-1050元/吨；云南地区参考价格940-960元/吨；
Phosphate Rock:
The price of phosphorus ore is no change this week. Because of the security inspection in Hubei, and environmental inspection in Sichuan and Guizhou, some mining companies suspended production, so market supply has been affected in some certain areas in short term.
For 28% grade raw ore: Reference price in Guizhou is 940-960 yuan per ton; reference price in Yunnan is 890-910 yuan per ton; reference price in Hubei is 1000-1020 yuan per ton.
For 30% grade raw ore: Reference price in Guizhou is 1030-1050 yuan per ton; reference price in Hubei is 1030-1050 yuan per ton; reference price in Yunnan is 940-960 yuan per ton.
黄磷：
本周虽然黄磷成本略有上升，并且需求方面也有利好支撑，但下游大多观望后期价格，延迟采购。另外部分贸易商有前期低价头寸，为促进走货也不断降价签单。 因此黄磷价格略有下跌。
成本方面：进入冬季枯水期，水力发电不足，云南及四川地区电价上涨，成本方面略有增加。
供应方面：本周黄磷供应量较上周继续减少，虽然有个别企业因为环保督察降负荷，个别企业检修，但是整体供应仍然充足，再加上行业库存高位，有供过于求的趋势，部分有库存和资金压力的企业，稳价信心不足。
需求方面：下游部分企业检修停产，难以带动原料消耗，整体原料库存偏高，再加上黄磷价格跌势，下游企业大多观望后期价格，延迟采购计划。另外部分贸易商有此前低价头寸，为促进走货不断降价签单，难以支撑黄磷价格止跌走稳。
预计短期内下游产品需求难有好转，终端市场对产业链走货支撑不足；另一方面，买涨不买跌，在产企业采购商短期内谨慎观望心态难消除；当期产出量，加上行业库存量，以及新单成交量偏少预期，短期内供应仍呈增加趋势；建议关注黄磷企业开工计划、做库存计划，下游企业开工及采购计划。
Yellow phosphorus:
The price of yellow phosphorus has slightly declined this week, although the cost has increased slightly and there’s support for the demand, but downstream companies are mostly postponing the procurement due to the high price now, some trading companies lower their price for promoting sales.
On the cost side: The cost of yellow phosphorus increased slightly due to the electricity power price in Yunnan and Sichuan have risen with coming of dry season.
Supply and operating rate: The supply of yellow phosphorus is sufficient even though some producers in Guizhou and Sichuan areas reduce or suspend production affected by the environmental inspections, coupled with the market inventory, some companies lower their price for promoting sales.
On the demands side: Some downstream companies have suspended production due to maintenance, which is difficult to drive raw material consumption. The overall raw material inventory is high. In addition, with the decline in yellow phosphorus prices, most downstream companies are waiting to see the later prices and delay purchasing plans. Some trading companies have previously low-price to promote sales, which is difficult to support the yellow phosphorus price to stop falling and stabilize.
It is expected that the demand for downstream products will not improve in the short term, and the terminal market will provide insufficient support for the sales of the industrial chain. On the other hand, it is difficult to eliminate the cautious wait-and-see mentality of buyers of production enterprises in the short term, as they buy when prices rise and do not buy when prices fall. The current output volume, plus the industry inventory and the expected low volume of new orders will lead to an increasing supply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up plans and inventory plans of yellow phosphorus enterprises, and the start-up and procurement plans of downstream enterprises.
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热法磷酸：
本周热法磷酸35KG包装FOB 防城报价为USD1035.00-1130.00。
本周热法磷酸价格保持平稳，新单成交稀少。原料黄磷价格持续下跌，个别企业报价也跟随小幅下调。
成本方面：本周黄磷价格虽有下调，但多数热法磷酸在产企业反馈仍使用库存原料，成本面影响暂不明显；
需求方面：下游保持按需采购为主，另一方面，原料价格持续下跌，其他客户保持观望。
供应方面：本周四川地区部分企业因环保检查停产或降负荷生产。
预计短期内黄磷市场价格止跌困难，仍有下降预期，热法磷酸成本面支撑减弱；内需及出口市场走货缓慢，价格缺乏实质支撑；短期内湿法净化磷酸市场价格仍旧坚挺，且部分大厂仍有检修计划，供应或将偏紧，利好热法磷酸市场价格企稳。
Thermal phosphoric acid:
The FOB Fangcheng price for 35KG thermal phosphoric acid is USD1035.00 to USD1130.00 this week, increased by USD60 per ton.
Thermal phosphoric acid prices remained stable this week and new orders were rare. The price of yellow phosphorus had declined slightly, which resulting in the price decline of thermal phosphoric acid.
On the cost side: Although the price of yellow phosphorus has dropped this week, most thermal phosphoric acid companies still use inventory raw materials, and the cost impact is not obvious for the time being.
On the demand side: Downstream procurement are mainly based on demand. The price of raw materials continues to fall, but customers remain on the sidelines.
On the supply side: Some companies in Sichuan suspended production or reduced production due to the environmental inspections, The price of thermal phosphoric acid remained stable this week, and new orders were rare. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to fall, and the quotations of some companies also followed a slight decline.
Cost: Although the price of yellow phosphorus has dropped this week, most thermal phosphoric acid companies still use inventory raw materials, and the cost impact is not obvious for the time being;
Demand: Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. On the other hand, the price of raw materials continues to fall, and other customers remain on the sidelines.
Supply: This week, some companies in Sichuan stopped production or reduced production due to environmental protection inspections.
It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will be difficult to stop falling in the short term, and there is still a downward expectation. The cost support of thermal phosphoric acid has weakened; the domestic demand and export markets are slow, and the price lacks substantial support; in the short term, the market price of wet-process purified phosphoric acid is still strong, and some large factories still have maintenance plans, and the supply may be tight, which is beneficial to the stabilization of the market price of thermal phosphoric acid.
湿法磷酸：
本周湿法净化磷酸报价无调整，下游需求无明显变化，磷酸盐市场交投冷清。
供应方面：本周主流大厂福建基地装置检修结束，市场现货库存缓慢增长，但仍需考虑某大厂其它基地检修计划，不排除11月中下旬某大厂整体控量明显，市场现货难见宽松趋势。另外，贵州某企预计11月中上旬85%酸装置试机，近期可保持关注。
预计下周湿法净化磷酸价格将继续保持稳定。11月净化酸大厂预计仍有检修计划，叠加多数生产商仍有待发订单，现货有偏紧预期；另外下游磷酸铁大厂开工稳定，消耗净化酸无明显减量，因此刚需稳定。
Wet purified phosphoric acid:
There was no change for the price of wet-process purified phosphoric this week. The procurement of downstream was rare.
On the supply side: The main producer in Fujian had resumed production this week, the spot inventory has increase slightly but need to pay attention to the operating rate and maintenance plans of another producers in November.
It is expected that the price of wet-process purified phosphoric acid will continue to remain stable next week. In November, some producers are expected to still have maintenance plans, and there’re sufficient pending orders for producers, so the spot market is expected to be tight; in addition, the operating rate of downstream iron phosphate is stable, and there is no obvious reduction in the consumption of wet process phosphate acid, so the rigid demand is stable.
纯碱：
本周国内纯碱价格波动有限，个别区域市场低价有所松动，但整体市场价格无明显变化。
供应方面：本周纯碱行业开工率仍有下滑，但整体市场供应仍然充足。
需求方面：下游需求持续缩减。
成本方面：本周纯碱行业成本有所上涨，但下游需求冷淡，行业整体利润持续缩减。
后期纯碱价格将继续维持当前价格水平，市场供需基本面难以改善。
Sodium carbonate:
The price fluctuation of sodium carbonate is limitedly and the price in some regional markets lowered, but the overall market price did not change significantly.
On the supply side: The operating rate of the sodium carbonate continued to decline this week, but the overall market supply was still sufficient.
On the demand side: Downstream demand continued to shrink.
On the cost side: The cost of the sodium carbonate industry rose this week, but downstream demand was sluggish, and the overall profit of the industry continued to shrink.
In the future, the price of sodium carbonate will continue to maintain the current price level, and the market supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to improve.
